- Prediction
Senegal begin their AFCON 2025 Group D campaign in Tangier knowing that anything short of progression would be regarded as failure, yet the Lions of Teranga arrive in Morocco at a delicate point in their cycle.
The 2021 champions remain one of Africa’s most complete squads, but this tournament represents a subtle handover of responsibility. Established pillars such as Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mané are still present, while a younger generation led by Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye is increasingly shaping the team’s attacking identity.
Since replacing Aliou Cissé, head coach Pape Thiaw has overseen a smooth transition rather than a rupture. Senegal have lost just once in 14 matches under his leadership, qualified comfortably for the 2026 World Cup, and recently underlined their elite credentials by defeating England 3–1 in a high-profile friendly. The expectation is clear: Senegal are not merely targeting qualification, but another deep run.
Botswana, by contrast, arrive as one of the tournament’s true outsiders. Making only their second AFCON appearance and first since 2012, the Zebras qualified by outperforming expectations in a group that included Egypt and Cape Verde. Their campaign was defined by organisation, resilience, and an ability to frustrate technically superior sides.
Morena Ramoreboli’s squad is largely domestically based and lacks tournament experience, but that absence of pressure could work in their favour. Against one of the continent’s heavyweights, Botswana’s objective will be simple: survive the early phases, limit damage, and hope that discipline and opportunism can keep them competitive.
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- Senegal are expected to line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1, a system that allows them to balance defensive solidity with explosive attacking transitions. While personnel may rotate later in the group, this opener is likely to feature a strong XI to establish control early.
- Mory Diaw is set to start in goal, protected by a back four built around the authority of captain Kalidou Koulibaly. He is expected to partner Moussa Niakhaté centrally, with Krépin Diatta and El Hadji Malick Diouf providing athleticism and width from full-back. Senegal’s defensive line is comfortable holding a high position, compressing the pitch and enabling sustained pressure.
- In midfield, experience anchors the system. Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Alassane Gueye form a double pivot designed to win second balls, recycle possession, and protect against counter-attacks. Their presence frees the attacking midfield trio to operate with minimal defensive burden.
- Further forward, Senegal’s attacking shape is fluid rather than rigid. Iliman Ndiaye is likely to drift between the lines, Ismaïla Sarr provides direct penetration from the right, while Sadio Mané, though no longer at his peak, remains a constant threat cutting inside from the left. Nicolas Jackson leads the line, tasked with stretching Botswana’s centre-backs and creating space rather than serving purely as a focal-point finisher.
Botswana- Botswana are expected to adopt a cautious 4-3-3 that often collapses into a compact 4-5-1 without the ball. Defensive shape will be paramount, with minimal pressing in advanced areas and a strong emphasis on maintaining narrow distances between the lines.
- Keoagile Kgosipula is likely to start in goal behind a back four marshalled by captain Mosha Gaolaolwe. Full-backs are expected to remain conservative, limiting overlaps and prioritising defensive coverage over attacking contribution.
- In midfield, numbers matter more than creativity. Gape Mohutsiwa and Lebogang Ditsile will be tasked with screening the defence and disrupting Senegal’s rhythm, while Kabelo Seakanyeng provides limited ball progression when possible. Botswana’s attacking threat will largely come on the break, with Tumisang Orebonye offering physical presence up front and attempting to draw fouls or hold up play to relieve pressure.
- VenueNameGrand Stade de Tanger (Tanger)AddressBoulevard des Forces Armées RoyalesCityTangierArchitectJawad KhattabiCapacity45000Open2011
- Previous matches: Senegal
- Previous matches: Botswana